Bologna host Celtic at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Thursday afternoon, January 22, 2026, in a Europa League clash between two sides struggling with inconsistency. The hosts sit eighth in Serie A with 30 points from 21 matches, while Celtic trail Hearts by six points in the Scottish Premiership. Vincenzo Italiano's Bologna enter as favorites despite a mixed run of form, while Martin O'Neill's reshuffled Celtic side will look to upset the odds with their first competitive visit to face the Italian club.
Bologna's domestic form shows just one win from their last five Serie A outings. They fell 1-2 to Fiorentina on Sunday before securing a 3-2 victory over Verona on January 15 and drawing 1-1 with Como on January 10. Earlier defeats to Atalanta (0-2) and Inter (1-3) highlight their defensive vulnerabilities. Italiano is managing an extensive injury list, with Federico Bernardeschi out until mid-February following collarbone surgery and key players Jhon Lucumí and Łukasz Skorupski sidelined with muscle problems. Despite these setbacks, Bologna have scored 30 goals in 21 league matches and possess genuine attacking threat through their wide players and forward rotation.
Celtic's January has been equally turbulent under O'Neill, who returned for his second spell as manager on January 5 following Wilfried Nancy's brief 33-day tenure. The visitors beat Auchinleck Talbot 2-0 in the Scottish Cup on Sunday and defeated Dundee United 4-0 on January 10, but those results followed a damaging 1-3 Old Firm defeat to Rangers on January 3. Their extensive injury list includes Cameron Carter-Vickers, Jota, and Alistair Johnston, all facing long-term absences. O'Neill has brought in Julian Araujo on loan from Bournemouth to address squad depth issues, but Celtic remain vulnerable at the back despite scoring 39 goals in 22 league matches this season.
This fixture marks the first competitive meeting between Bologna and Celtic. Bologna have faced Scottish opposition only twice before—home and away fixtures against Hearts in the 1990-91 UEFA Cup—while Celtic have struggled historically against Italian clubs, winning just seven of 33 European encounters. Both sides will treat this as an opportunity to establish early dominance in a tie with no historical precedent to guide either manager's approach.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 4/5 (1.80 decimal), with a 63.06% probability of success. I predict a 2-1 victory for Bologna, with projected expected goals of 1.92 for the hosts and 1.29 for Celtic. Both teams have conceded regularly in recent weeks, with Bologna shipping seven goals in their last five Serie A matches and Celtic allowing 21 goals across 22 league fixtures. The narrow xG gap reflects Bologna's home advantage balanced against Celtic's ability to find the net even when under pressure, making goals at both ends the likeliest outcome in this first-ever competitive meeting.
