FC Bayern München host struggling VfL Wolfsburg at the Allianz Arena on Sunday afternoon as the defending champions look to extend their commanding lead at the top of the Bundesliga table. Vincent Kompany's side sits eight points clear in first place with 41 points from 15 matches, while Daniel Bauer's Wolfsburg languishes in 14th position with just 15 points from the same number of games. Bayern enters as overwhelming favorites, having won every recent encounter between these two sides and maintaining the best attack in Germany's top flight.
Bayern closed out 2025 in formidable fashion, collecting 13 points from their last five competitive matches. Kompany's men thrashed Heidenheim 4-0, demolished Stuttgart 5-0, beat Sporting CP 3-1 in the Champions League, and edged Union Berlin 3-2 in the DFB-Pokal. Their only blemish came in a 2-2 draw with Mainz in mid-December. The Bavarians will be without Joshua Kimmich due to an ongoing ankle injury, while Jamal Musiala remains sidelined despite returning to training. Manuel Neuer is expected to reclaim his place between the posts after recovering from a thigh problem, providing a major boost ahead of a crucial fixture run.
Wolfsburg arrives in Munich desperately seeking points after a mixed run of form under new manager Bauer, who was appointed permanently on December 20 following Paul Simonis' dismissal. The Wolves won consecutive matches against Union Berlin 3-1 and Mönchengladbach 3-1 before suffering a damaging 4-3 defeat at Freiburg on December 20. Their overall record in the last five Bundesliga fixtures shows two wins, two losses, and one draw against Frankfurt. Mohammed Amoura's absence for the Africa Cup of Nations removes a key attacking threat, while Jonas Wind remains out with a hip injury that required surgery.
Bayern's dominance over Wolfsburg shows no signs of stopping based on recent history. The teams met exactly one year ago in January 2025, with Bayern edging a thriller 3-2 thanks to a Leon Goretzka brace despite Mohamed Amoura scoring twice for the visitors. Before that, Bayern secured 3-2 and 2-0 victories in the 2024 calendar year. The Bavarians have won all of their last encounters against Wolfsburg and hold an overwhelming historical record of 41 wins in 51 meetings since 2003, with Wolfsburg managing just four victories in that span.
My model backs both teams to score at 4/5 (1.80 decimal) with a 53.39% win probability for this bet. The correct score prediction stands at 3-1 to Bayern München, with expected goals of 2.49 for the hosts and 0.85 for Wolfsburg. Bayern have conceded in three of their last five matches, and Wolfsburg found the net in both wins against mid-table opposition.
