Septemvri Sofia come into Monday evening on a very poor run, with five straight league defeats after their 2-0 win over CSKA Sofia on 28 February. The table gives the away side a clear edge too: Septemvri are 15th with 21 points from 27 matches, while Botev Vratsa are 10th on 34 points. Home results have also been a problem for Hristo Arangelov's team, who have lost eight of 13 league games in Sofia.
Botev Vratsa are not arriving in perfect form after the 1-2 home loss to Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 22 March, but their recent spell is still stronger than the hosts'. They had taken seven points from the previous three league matches, including an away win at Botev Plovdiv, and their away record is solid enough for this level at four wins, four draws and five defeats. Septemvri's overall numbers are much weaker, with 18 losses in 27 league games and 57 goals conceded.
The underlying projections also lean toward the visitors rather than an even contest. Septemvri are projected at only 0.6 xG here, compared with 1.2 for Botev Vratsa, which fits the 0-2 correct-score lean. That is not an overwhelming attacking projection for the away side, so there is some tension with an outright win bet, but it still points more clearly to Botev Vratsa having the better chances.
One extra angle in the visitors' favour is the recent head-to-head record. Botev Vratsa are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Septemvri Sofia, and they won the reverse fixture 2-1 in October 2025. That does not guarantee another away success, but it adds to the case that this matchup has suited Todor Simov's side more often than not.
My prediction is Away Win at 2.25. Septemvri Sofia have lost five league matches in a row and have been beaten eight times in 13 home games, while Botev Vratsa sit 13 points higher in the table and already own an away win at Botev Plovdiv this month. The xG split of 0.6 to 1.2 also gives the visitors the better platform to take all three points.
