Hønefoss BK come into this opener unbeaten in their only league outing so far, a 0-0 draw away to Bodø/Glimt on 20 March, and that clean sheet sits neatly alongside a run that has featured three draws and one win in their last six league matches. Molde, by contrast, were beaten 5-0 at home by SK Brann Kvinner in their first league game, a result that exposed a side that struggled badly without the ball and generated only 0.4 xG.
For this fixture to stay close, Molde need a much sharper attacking return than they produced in that opening defeat. Their last outing ended with just two shots and one on target, while Hønefoss have already shown they can keep games tight, as they did in the draw at Bodø/Glimt. The xG picture is modest on both sides too, with Hønefoss projected at 1.1 and Molde at 0.8, which points to a competitive match rather than a runaway.
The home side also have a useful edge in the way they start games. Hønefoss have scored first in four of their last five matches, and they have already avoided defeat in their only home league fixture on record, even if that home sample is still tiny. Molde, meanwhile, have gone three league matches without a clean sheet and were first to concede in five of their last seven, so they arrive with more defensive questions than answers.
There is a slight tension in the numbers because the projected scoreline of 2-1 suggests Molde may still find a goal, but that does not weaken the home angle much. Hønefoss have been more stable in recent league form, Molde were swept aside by Brann in their season opener, and the away side’s attacking output in that match was far too low to inspire much confidence. The home advantage adds another small layer in Hønefoss’s favour.
My prediction is Home Win at 83/100. Hønefoss have avoided defeat in four of their last five league matches, while Molde start from the back of a 5-0 loss and a display that produced only 0.4 xG. The home side have also scored first in four of their last five, and Molde’s recent record of going three games without a clean sheet leaves them vulnerable if Hønefoss strike early.
