Second-placed AC Milan host struggling Lecce at San Siro on Sunday evening, January 18, 2026, with the Rossoneri heavy favorites to extend their unbeaten run. Milan sit on 40 points from 19 matches under Massimiliano Allegri, while Eusebio Di Francesco's Lecce languish in 17th place with just 17 points from 20 games. The hosts have drawn their last two but remain firmly in the title race, while the visitors desperately need points to climb away from the relegation zone.
Milan's recent form shows resilience without complete dominance. The Rossoneri secured a crucial 3-1 comeback victory at Como on Thursday, with Christopher Nkunku converting a penalty and Adrien Rabiot scoring twice to overturn an early deficit. Before that, they drew 1-1 with both Fiorentina on January 11 and Genoa on January 8, sandwiching a narrow 1-0 win at Cagliari on January 2. Their defense remains solid with goalkeeper Mike Maignan continuing his impressive shot-stopping, though Strahinja Pavlović's head injury keeps him sidelined. Niclas Füllkrug has recovered from his toe fracture and returned to the bench against Como, while Santiago Gimenez won't feature until late March.
Lecce arrive at San Siro in dismal form, having lost four of their last five matches. Inter edged them 1-0 on Wednesday, extending a painful January that also saw defeats to Parma 2-1 on January 11 and Roma 2-0 on January 6. Their only positive result came with a 1-1 draw against Juventus on January 3 before Como thrashed them 3-0 on December 27. With just 13 goals scored in 19 league games this season, Di Francesco's side lacks the firepower to trouble elite defenses consistently. Francesco Camarda, on loan from Milan, misses the fixture against his parent club due to a shoulder injury.
Milan have dominated this fixture historically, winning the last five meetings and remaining unbeaten in their last 14 encounters with Lecce. The Rossoneri claimed 3-0 victories in both their Serie A meeting in April 2024 and a Coppa Italia clash in September 2025. Lecce's last win in this head-to-head came years ago, and even their draws against Milan have become rare.
My model backs Under 2.5 Goals at 91/100 (1.91 decimal), with a 44.62% probability. The correct score prediction is Milan 1-0, supported by expected goals of 2.26 for Milan and just 0.63 for Lecce. Lecce have scored in only one of their last five matches, making a clean sheet highly probable. The significant xG gap reflects Milan's attacking superiority against a toothless Lecce side that has netted just once in their recent five-game stretch.
