Napoli host Chelsea in a crucial UEFA Champions League clash on Wednesday evening, January 28, 2026, at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Both sides are fighting to secure knockout stage progression, making this a high-stakes encounter. Antonio Conte's Napoli are enduring a challenging period despite their strong Serie A position, while Liam Rosenior's Chelsea arrive in fine form following recent Premier League victories.
Napoli's recent struggles have been compounded by a severe injury crisis that manager Antonio Conte describes as "endless." On Sunday, they suffered a demoralizing 3-0 defeat at Juventus, their heaviest loss in months. That setback followed a 1-1 Champions League draw with Copenhagen on January 20, where they failed to capitalize despite facing ten men for much of the match. Earlier wins over Sassuolo (1-0 on January 17) and Lazio (2-0 on January 4) provided brief respite, but a goalless draw with Parma on January 14 exposed their attacking difficulties. David Neres underwent ankle surgery and will miss the remainder of the season until April, while Kevin De Bruyne, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Billy Gilmour, and goalkeeper Alex Meret remain long-term absentees.
Chelsea have rediscovered their rhythm under new boss Rosenior, who has guided them to four wins from five matches since his January 6 appointment. On Sunday, they dispatched Crystal Palace 3-1 away from home, with Estêvão, João Pedro, and Enzo Fernández all finding the net. That victory ended a five-match winless run on the road and lifted them into fourth in the Premier League table. Chelsea also beat Brentford 2-0 on January 17, breaking a frustrating five-game league winless streak. Cole Palmer remains a minor doubt after missing the Palace game with thigh tightness, while Levi Colwill (ACL), Tosin Adarabioyo (hamstring), and Dario Essugo are confirmed absentees.
The two clubs have met just twice before, both encounters coming in the 2011-12 Champions League knockout rounds. Napoli won 3-1 at home in the first leg on February 21, 2012, but Chelsea responded with a dramatic 4-1 extra-time victory at Stamford Bridge on March 14, 2012, to progress to the quarter-finals.
My model backs Both Teams To Score at 70/100 (1.70 decimal) with a 63.79% probability. The correct score prediction is 1-1, supported by expected goals of 1.80 for Napoli and 1.39 for Chelsea. Both teams have found the net consistently—Napoli scored in four of their last five matches, while Chelsea netted in all five of theirs. The narrow xG gap of just 0.41 reinforces the expectation of a closely contested fixture where both sides will threaten.
