Arsenal arrive at the City Ground as heavy favorites on Saturday afternoon, January 17, 2026, sitting top of the Premier League table with 49 points from 21 matches while Nottingham Forest languish in 17th place with just 21 points. Mikel Arteta's side, fresh from their 3-2 midweek EFL Cup semi-final victory over Chelsea, will be looking to extend their dominance over Sean Dyche's struggling hosts, having won the last three meetings between the sides without conceding a goal.
Nottingham Forest enter this clash in dismal form under new manager Sean Dyche, winless in their last five matches across all competitions. Their recent run includes three straight Premier League defeats to Manchester City (2-1 on December 27), Aston Villa (3-1 on January 3), and Everton (2-0 on December 30), sandwiched around a 2-1 victory at West Ham on January 6 and a dramatic 3-3 draw with Wrexham in the FA Cup on Friday that ended in a penalty shootout loss. Dyche, appointed in late October after Ange Postecoglou's brief and unsuccessful stint, faces a mounting relegation battle with his side just four points above the drop zone. Key striker Chris Wood remains sidelined with a knee injury, though Ryan Yates has returned to training after a hamstring problem and could feature.
Arsenal's momentum continues to build as they chase their first Premier League title since 2004. The Gunners have won four of their last five matches, including impressive victories at Bournemouth (3-2 on January 3), against Portsmouth in the FA Cup (4-1 on January 11), and their thrilling comeback win at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. Their only blemish was a goalless draw at home to Liverpool on January 8, a result that did little to dent their title credentials. Arteta has a near-full squad to choose from, with William Saliba and Leandro Trossard both expected to be available despite minor knocks, though Piero Hincapie, Riccardo Calafiori, Cristhian Mosquera, and Max Dowman remain out through various injuries.
Arsenal have enjoyed a stranglehold over this fixture recently, with three consecutive victories all ending 3-0. The Gunners secured a dominant 3-0 win at the City Ground on September 13, 2025, earlier this season, following similar scorelines at the Emirates in November 2024 and again in September 2025. Nottingham Forest's last point against Arsenal came in a 0-0 draw in February 2025, but that stalemate feels like a distant memory given the gulf in quality and form between the two sides.
My model backs Arsenal to win at 53/100 (1.53 decimal) with a 52.06% probability of collecting all three points. The prediction has Arsenal edging this 2-1, with expected goals projecting 1.05 for Nottingham Forest and 1.73 for Arsenal. Arsenal have scored in 19 of their 21 league matches this season, suggesting Forest's hopes of keeping a clean sheet are slim. The 0.68 xG advantage points to a controlled away performance from the league leaders.
