Fourth-placed Roma welcome second-placed Milan to the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday evening, January 25, 2026, in a clash that could reshape the top of Serie A. Milan sit just six points behind leaders Inter with 46 points from 21 matches, while Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma are four points further back on 42, seeking to close the gap on the Champions League places.
Roma enter this fixture in blistering form under Gasperini, unbeaten in their last three Serie A matches and chasing a fourth consecutive league victory. The Giallorossi defeated Torino 2-0 away on Sunday, before beating VfB Stuttgart 2-0 in the Europa League on January 22. That defensive solidity has been striking—three straight league clean sheets. However, their Coppa Italia exit to Torino on January 13 and an earlier 1-0 loss to Atalanta on January 3 highlight occasional vulnerability. Remarkably, Roma have still not drawn a single match across all competitions this season, winning 14 and losing seven in Serie A alone. Hermoso, Dovbyk, and El Shaarawy all miss out through injury, but Mancini and Ferguson should be available.
Milan arrive in the capital riding a 20-match unbeaten streak in Serie A under Massimiliano Allegri, though recent results have been mixed. The Rossoneri secured a narrow 1-0 win over Lecce on Sunday but dropped points in consecutive 1-1 draws against Fiorentina and Genoa before suffering a surprising 3-1 loss to Como on January 15. With 13 wins, seven draws, and just one loss in 21 league games, Sergio Conceição's side remain title contenders despite inconsistency. Rafael Leao remains fit and available, while Saelemaekers is a doubt with an adductor issue and Gimenez is ruled out with an ankle injury.
Milan have dominated this fixture historically, winning more Serie A matches against Roma than any other opponent with 81 victories. Recent meetings favor the visitors too—Milan beat Roma 1-0 in November 2025 and have won nine of the last 16 league encounters. Roma's last victory in the series came in May 2025 with a commanding 3-1 home win, suggesting they can hurt the Rossoneri when on form.
My model backs Roma or Draw and Over 1.5 Goals at 9/10 (1.90 decimal) with a 54.29% win probability. The correct score prediction is 1-1, with expected goals projecting Roma at 1.44 and Milan at 0.92. Both sides have scored in five of their last six head-to-head meetings, supporting the over 1.5 goals angle. The narrow xG difference reflects Roma's home advantage against Milan's league-best defensive record, pointing toward a competitive, evenly-matched encounter.
