Sousa EC come into this Copa do Nordeste fixture with a run that has been tight and low-scoring, featuring two goalless draws, two 1-0 or 0-1 type games, and only one goal in each of their last six on three occasions. Their most recent outing finished 0-0 away to Botafogo-PB, while their home game against Botafogo-PB ended in a 1-2 loss, so they have not been producing much in either box.
Confiança have been just as restrained in front of goal, with their last six containing two goalless draws, two one-goal matches and only one game where they reached two goals. The recent 0-0 away to Vila Nova FC came with xG of just 0.35 and an opponent xG of 0.34, which fits a match pattern where clear chances are being scarce. That is not a strong base for an open contest.
Both sides also bring longer low-scoring tendencies into this one. Sousa EC have gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine, and Confiança have finished under that line in five straight. When both teams are repeatedly landing in the same narrow score band, a cagey game becomes the more natural expectation.
There is a slight tension with the projected 1-1 scoreline, but even that still sits inside the selected line and matches the sort of limited attacking output both clubs have been posting. The xG projection of 0.5 for Sousa EC and 1.1 for Confiança points to just 1.6 expected goals in total, which leaves plenty of room for a match that stays below three.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 17/20. Sousa EC have been under this line in eight of their last nine, Confiança are on a five-match run of under 2.5 goals, and their recent xG numbers have stayed modest, including Confiança’s 0.35 at Vila Nova FC. Sousa EC’s home games have also been short on goal volume, which supports a narrow finish rather than a high-scoring one.
