Toulouse host Auxerre at the Stadium de Toulouse on Sunday evening in a Ligue 1 encounter between two teams in contrasting positions. Carles Martínez's side sit 8th with 29 points from 19 matches, pushing for a top-half finish after a mixed run of form. Auxerre, meanwhile, occupy 17th place on just 12 points and face a genuine relegation battle under Christophe Pélissier. With a 17-point gap separating the sides, the hosts enter as clear favorites on home soil.
Toulouse have shown inconsistency in recent weeks, winning two and losing two of their last five Ligue 1 matches. The 3-0 defeat at Lens on January 2 was a setback, but prior to that, back-to-back wins over Paris FC (3-0) and Strasbourg (1-0) demonstrated their ability to grind out results. A 2-2 draw with Marseille at home showed they can compete against top-half opposition. The Spanish coach Martínez, in his third season at the club, has built a side comfortable in possession with a goal difference of +8.
Pélissier's Auxerre are in deep trouble, having won just 3 of their 19 league matches this season. A 0-1 home defeat to PSG on January 23 extended their winless run to three matches, and they have lost 13 times in the league this campaign. The 4-1 thrashing at Lyon earlier in the season highlighted their defensive fragility—they have conceded 34 goals in 19 matches, the third-worst record in Ligue 1. January loan signing Romain Faivre from Bournemouth adds creativity, but goals remain scarce for a side averaging under one per game.
The historical record favors the hosts. Toulouse lead the head-to-head with 12 wins to Auxerre's 7 across 25 meetings, with 6 draws. Last season's encounters saw a split—Toulouse won 2-0 at home in December 2024 before a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture in February 2025. Toulouse have scored 39 goals to Auxerre's 25 in their overall rivalry.
I'm backing Toulouse to win at 1.75. Toulouse have won 5 of their 9 home league matches this season, while Auxerre have lost 8 of their 10 away fixtures. The visitors have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 away games, whereas Toulouse have netted in 8 of 9 home outings. The xG projection (2.14–1.04) supports a 2-1 finish.
