West Ham United host Sunderland at the London Stadium on Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2026, with the Hammers desperate for points in their relegation battle. Manager Nuno Espírito Santo's side enter the fixture buoyed by a stunning away win on Friday while Sunderland sit ninth in the table with 33 points from 22 matches. The Black Cats have shown resilience under Regis Le Bris, bouncing back repeatedly from setbacks throughout their impressive debut season back in the top flight.
West Ham showed fighting spirit in their latest outing, securing a vital 2-1 victory at Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday. Callum Wilson's dramatic late winner proved the difference after the Hammers dominated the first half. That result followed a mixed run that included defeats to Arsenal (0-2) and Brentford (0-2), along with a frustrating 1-1 home draw against Everton in early January. Nuno's new signings up front offer fresh attacking options, though defensive frailties remain a persistent concern for the struggling London club.
Sunderland arrive on the back of their own impressive comeback victory, defeating Crystal Palace 2-1 on Friday. Brian Brobbey struck the winner after Enzo Le Fée had equalized Yeremy Pino's opener, marking the Black Cats' first Premier League win since December. Le Bris's young squad has also drawn 1-1 at Aston Villa in January and suffered defeats to Nottingham Forest (0-1) and Manchester United (0-2) before Christmas. The French manager can call upon Habib Diarra and Chemsdine Talbi following their Africa Cup of Nations exploits, adding valuable depth to his attacking options.
"It shows this league is really hard because they are a good team that are experienced, but struggling," Le Bris said of West Ham earlier this week. "They don't give up that's clear and they are in good form. They have signed two new forwards so they can bounce back and create a new dynamic."
The two clubs met on the opening day of the season in August when West Ham claimed a comprehensive 3-0 victory at home. That result set an optimistic tone for the Hammers' campaign, though form has deteriorated significantly since those early weeks. Sunderland will be eager to exact revenge and prove how far they've progressed under Le Bris's guidance.
My model backs West Ham or Draw and Over 1.5 Goals at 83/100 (1.83 decimal) with a 56.28% probability. I predict a 1-1 draw with expected goals of 1.63 for West Ham and 1.33 for Sunderland. The narrow xG gap reflects two teams finding their scoring touch after recent wins but equally capable of defensive lapses. Sunderland have notched just 23 goals in 22 league games this season, suggesting low-scoring affairs remain their trademark.
