Mid-table Bologna head to the Luigi Ferraris on Sunday afternoon, January 25, 2026, to face struggling Genoa in what could be a vital six-pointer for both sides. The hosts sit 16th with 20 points under new manager Daniele De Rossi, while Vincenzo Italiano's Bologna occupy 8th place with 30 points but arrive in poor league form with just one win in their last nine Serie A matches.
Genoa's fortunes have shifted dramatically since De Rossi's November appointment. After a difficult December that included losses to Inter, Atalanta, and Roma, the Rossoblu have found stability in 2026 with four consecutive matches unbeaten. They drew 1-1 with Pisa on January 3, shared points 1-1 at AC Milan on January 8, thrashed Cagliari 3-0 on January 12, and most recently drew 0-0 with Parma on Sunday. The back-to-back clean sheets against Cagliari and Parma mark the first time this season Genoa has achieved that feat. Lorenzo Colombo has been their main attacking threat with four goals this season, all scored at home.
Bologna's campaign tells a contrasting story. Despite sitting comfortably in eighth, their recent Serie A form has been concerning. They suffered a 3-1 defeat to Inter on January 4, lost 2-0 to Atalanta on January 7, drew 1-1 with Como on January 10, earned a rare 3-2 victory against Verona on January 15, then lost 2-1 to Fiorentina on January 18. On Thursday they drew 2-2 with Celtic in the Europa League. Riccardo Orsolini leads their attack with seven league goals, but the defense has failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 consecutive matches across all competitions. Juan Miranda is suspended, while Jhon Lucumi and Federico Bernardeschi are injured.
Head-to-head history between these sides shows tight margins. In their last five meetings, Bologna won 2-1 in September, Genoa won 3-1 in May 2025, they drew 2-2 in October 2024, Genoa won 2-0 in May 2024, and they drew 1-1 in January 2024.
My model backs Both Teams to Score at 1/1 (2.00 decimal) with a 61.42% probability. The correct score prediction is a 1-1 draw, supported by expected goals of 1.51 for Genoa and 1.48 for Bologna. Bologna has conceded in all 15 of their last matches across competitions, a pattern unlikely to break against a Genoa side that scored three times in their last home fixture. The narrow xG gap of just 0.03 reinforces the expectation of a closely contested match where both defenses will be breached.
