Levante UD host Elche at the Estadi Ciutat de València on Friday evening, January 23, 2026, with both sides separated by 11 league positions and a chasm in form. The hosts languish in 19th place with 14 points from 19 matches, while Elche sit comfortably in eighth with 24 points from 20 games. Levante remain winless at home this season, collecting just three draws against eight losses, while Elche have built their campaign on strong home performances and need points to maintain their mid-table position.
Levante's recent run under new manager Luís Castro began promisingly with a stunning 3-0 win at Sevilla on January 4, ending a difficult spell following Castro's December 20 appointment. The brief optimism faded quickly as they drew 1-1 with Espanyol on January 11 before falling 2-0 to Real Madrid on Saturday. Prior to the Sevilla victory, Levante drew 1-1 with Real Sociedad on December 20 and lost 1-0 to Cultural Leonesa in the Copa del Rey. The injury crisis has deepened ahead of this fixture, with Víctor García, Roger Brugué, and Unai Elgezabal ruled out, while Diego Pampín and Matías Moreno remain major doubts.
Elche's season has been defined by consistency and resilience under Eder Sarabia, who signed a contract extension until 2027 last June. Their last five matches include a 2-2 draw with Sevilla on Monday, a 1-1 draw at Valencia on January 10, and a 1-3 home defeat to Villarreal on January 3. Before the new year, they thrashed Rayo Vallecano 4-0 on December 21 and edged Eibar 1-0 in the Copa del Rey. Despite a winless start to 2026, Elche's away form remains their Achilles heel with no victories on the road. They will be without suspended defender Víctor Chust, while Héctor Fort, Rafa Mir, and Pedro Bigas are confirmed absentees.
In their most recent clash on August 29, 2025, Elche secured a 2-0 victory. The historical record favors Levante, with 16 wins to Elche's five across 31 meetings since 2003, although recent encounters have been tighter. Last season saw both sides exchange victories, with Levante winning 3-1 in May before Elche's triumph in August.
My model backs Elche or Draw at 53/100 (1.53 decimal) with a 68.38% probability. The correct score prediction is 1-1, with expected goals of 1.39 for Levante and 1.64 for Elche. Elche have drawn nine of their 20 league matches this season, the highest in La Liga, suggesting their cautious approach on the road should yield at least a point against struggling opposition. The narrow xG gap of 0.25 reflects a competitive fixture where Elche's superior form meets Levante's home desperation.
