Arsenal welcome Manchester United to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday afternoon, January 25, 2026, with the league leaders looking to extend their 15-point advantage over the fifth-placed visitors. Mikel Arteta's side sit top of the Premier League table with 50 points from 22 matches, while Michael Carrick's struggling United arrive on 35 points after an inconsistent start to his tenure since taking charge on January 13.
Arsenal enter this fixture in blistering form, unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions. The Gunners secured a dominant 3-1 victory at Inter Milan on Tuesday in the Champions League, with Gabriel Jesus netting twice before Bukayo Saka sealed the win. They drew 0-0 at Nottingham Forest on Saturday, then eliminated Chelsea 3-2 in the Carabao Cup on January 14. Earlier wins included a 4-1 triumph over Portsmouth in the FA Cup on January 11 and a goalless draw with Liverpool on January 8. Arteta has received positive injury news with Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapie both returning to training, though only Max Dowman remains unavailable.
Manchester United's recent form has been erratic under new boss Carrick. The Red Devils earned a morale-boosting 2-0 derby win against Manchester City on Saturday, but that followed an embarrassing 2-1 FA Cup exit to Brighton on January 11. Before that, United drew 2-2 at Burnley on January 7 and 1-1 at Leeds on January 4. Matthijs de Ligt and Joshua Zirkzee are both out with injuries expected to keep them sidelined until early February, while Shea Lacey returns from suspension.
Arsenal have dominated this fixture recently, winning eight of their last twelve meetings since 2021. United's only two victories in that span came at Old Trafford, while Arsenal have remained unbeaten at the Emirates against their old rivals since 2017. The most recent encounter saw Arsenal win 1-0 at Old Trafford in August 2025, continuing a streak that included a 2-0 home victory in December 2024 and a 3-1 triumph in September 2023.
My model backs Over 2.5 Goals at 2/3 (1.67 decimal), with a 60.42% win probability. The correct score prediction is Arsenal 2-1, supported by expected goals of 1.88 for Arsenal and 1.25 for Manchester United. Both teams have scored in six of their last seven meetings, with the fixture consistently delivering goals despite Arsenal's recent defensive solidity.
