Stade Brestois welcome Toulouse to Stade Francis-Le Blé on Sunday afternoon, January 25, 2026, with both sides locked in mid-table scraps. Brest sit 10th with 22 points from 18 matches, while Toulouse occupy 8th place with 26 points from the same number of games. Neither side can claim momentum heading into this fixture, with Brest dropping their last league outing and Toulouse bouncing back from a cup exit with an emphatic win.
Éric Roy's Brest enter this match on the back of a 2-1 defeat to Lyon on Sunday. That loss undid positive work from earlier in January, when they beat Auxerre 2-0 on January 4. Their December form painted a picture of inconsistency, with a 1-0 win over Monaco on December 5 followed by a 3-1 loss to Rennes on December 13. The hosts will be without Romain Del Castillo, who serves a suspension following his red card against Lyon, while forward Mama Baldé remains sidelined with a shin injury sustained earlier this month.
Carles Martínez Novell's Toulouse arrive in better spirits after thrashing Nice 5-1 on Saturday. That performance erased the memory of their Coupe de France penalty shootout exit to Angers on January 10 and a disappointing 3-0 defeat to Lens on January 2. Before that, Les Violets strung together impressive December results, beating Paris FC 3-0 on December 13 and Strasbourg 1-0 on December 6, though they also drew 2-2 with Marseille on November 29 and lost 1-0 to Angers on November 23.
The recent history between these sides shows no clear pattern. Toulouse won the most recent encounter 2-0 on August 24, 2025, but Brest claimed a 4-2 victory at Toulouse on March 30, 2025. Before that, Brest shut out Toulouse 2-0 at home on September 22, 2024, and won 3-0 away on May 19, 2024. The pendulum has swung both ways across their last four meetings.
My model backs Draw or Toulouse and Over 1.5 Goals at 43/50 (1.86 decimal) with a 53.96% win probability. I predict a correct score of 1-1, with expected goals set at 1.26 for Brest and 1.51 for Toulouse. Toulouse have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight matches, while Brest have conceded in seven of their last eight outings. The narrow xG margin suggests a tight contest where both defenses will be breached but neither attack can dominate.
